reid about back of progress and his disappointment thereof. we're going to be back tomorrow. a show you must not mis, everybody. thank you so much for watching "street signs." good day. welcome to "closing bell." i'm bill griffeth here at the new york stock exchange. very, very newsy day, especially in the last few minutes. we've had consumer confidence out, housing prices on the rise. a big surprise to the upside on durable goods orders. so why aren't stocks rallying right now? >> we have an answer. politicians. i'm michelle ka rue sew-cabrera. the market started pulling back after senator major lieader hary reid said he's disappointed and it's time to end the happy talk. when did that happen? look at this intraday chart, and you can tell exactly when it

happened. then mitch mcconnell weighed in too. the nasdaq is lower by 1.5 points off the intrasession lows. same, similar pattern for the day. ditto in terms of the pattern for the s&p 500. lower than less than three points. >> so with all the good news on the economy out today, still no rally for stocks. is it really still all about the fiscal cliff for investors right now? let's talk about that in our clo"closing bell" exchange. steve liesman will have breaking news momentarily. steve, do you have that? >> yes, i do. what we have is a report from the new york fed on consumer finance. what the news shows is that overall, consumer credit outside of real estate is up just a bit.

most of that, by the way, is student loan debt, being up about $42 billion inside that $2.7 trillion number. overall, mortgage debt is down and overall debt is down. the basic gist of the details, bill, is that consumer credit continues to decline overall. delinquencies are down and bankruptcies are down. balance sheet repair continues. a little bit more willingness of the consumer to take on some debt and a lot of it -- >> that's very interesting, steve. let me ask you something, david. >> i want to make one more point, which is that when you talk about how much the dow is down today, it should be down more because the rally we didn't have from the better economic news this morning. >> yeah, no, that was a good point. david, so we've got consumer confidence data, which shows the consumer is not concerned about the fiscal cliff. the market shows you absolutely investors are concerned about the fiscal cliff.

who's right, david? >> well, i think consumers overall are very confident, but i think consumers and investors alike are ultimately concerned about the fiscal cliff. as you referred to earlier, we had the happy moment last week after the press conference before thanksgiving where political leaders use what the challenge was ahead of them and they were going to address the fiscal cliff. now we're getting the pasturing. senator reid's comments today. the market drops immediately. this headline risk the market is going to suffer from every day until they get to that deal. >> steven, when you look at the retail sales figures over the week, black friday we had up 28% on monday for cyber monday. that would seem to suggest as michelle said that consumers are not too worried about much, including the fiscal cliff. yet, the market has this kind of a selloff when we get words out of washington today. what do you make of this? who's right on the fiscal cliff right now? >> well, i think that --

>> steven gilfoil. >> the consumer isn't paying that much attention to this. the regular american doesn't watch the financial news. he isn't reading the kinds of papers we read. and he's less concerned with this. >> should they be? >> they probably should be, but investors are more concerned with corporate news, with macroeconomic news. the senator made a statement today. you would expect some kind of posturing this week. we're still 30 days out or so. they don't really have to cut a deal yet. they have to look like they're fighting for what they want to fight for, yet please the constituents. they're probably going to put that off for a couple weeks. >> it's the other way around. washington should be paying attention to the consumer and realize how much is the stake here. when you look at the consumer confidence levels able to hold up. when you look at the retail sales numbers pensimentioned by and the idea we've stabilized

when it comes to capital spending, there may be a decent run of growth that's on the line if they screw this up. >> but rick santelli, that just gives them breathing room to mess around even longer. >> well, yes, when i look at the interest rate market, just like stocks, they revisit it very closely -- how ironic. it almost makes me upset. interest rates are going down because they can't get a hands l on the deficit because stocks are going down. that's the reality we're dealing with. consumer confidence this morning, listen, i'm worried about the fiscal cliff. i have my button on. anybody who tries to put words in the general public's mouth about the fiscal cliff, these confidence numbers dispel that notion that they're worried. they probably don't even really know the details. >> david kudlow, you are taking something of a risk-on strategy.

you're going with the high-growth, high-dividend plays in this market, aren't you? >> yeah, we are. it's a strategy that's worked quite well p the uncertainty we've had over the fiscal cliff. with the positive economic data coming in, high-growth areas have done well for us. hi areas have helped diversify and steady the portfolio. >> you're not worried about impact that the fiscal cliff could have on the tax treatment of dividends out there? you get all these companies imposing early dividends, special dividends to try and slip it in before the end of the year. yet, you're still buying high yield right now. >> that's right. the reason i'm not worried is the high yield side of our strategy is preferreds, high yield bonds, mortgage-backed securities. those are areas that don't have the preferential treatment on the income stream right now. it does include the dividends on the common stocks that have the

qualified dividend preferable tax treatment. the areas we're investing in high yield, in fact, if the taxes on dividend paying stocks goes up on a relative basis, they look even more attractive on a comparable basis. >> steven, what are you guys doing on the floor right now? there are an awful lot of guys who have been skeptical on the rallies recently. are you among them? >> i think long-term david is right. but right now, there's going to be a lot of bumps in the road. you can play both sides. where was the s&p resistant today? it was resistant at 1407 three times. that was an effective point of resistance. it didn't come in that hard. nothing is down a percent here. we're playing small ball. we're bunting for singles and doubles. i think you can do that. you can play the macroeconomic data in the morning. you can try and play the fiscal cliff and what's going on in

greece because that's also a negative. >> volatility percentage-wise didn't as great as we obsess over the fiscal cliff. >> no, thank you. >> thanks, guys. meantime, gold has lost some of its shine today on encouraging economic data. we talked about optimism in europe. mary thompson is here with details. >> gold did pull back today. dollar strength at play there. longer term, traders still believe gold is well supported by a couple of things. tensions in the mideast, of course concerns about the fiscal cliff here in the u.s. also, expectations we'll see further monetary easing in japan. all bullish for gold. taking a quick look at what happened in the energy complex. a mixed day there. crude pulling back despite some very good economic news. the dollar strength at play there as well. all of this as the december options expired. ahead of tomorrow's inventory report, which is expected to show a build in crude inventory.

natural gas rebounding from yesterday's decline, which was spurred by the forecast for a warm december. back to you. >> all right, mary. thank you very much. >> all right. we've got 52 minutes before the closing bell. the dow jones industrial average off of its lows, down 55 points. the nasdaq is lower by -- fractionally lower. >> and don't look now, but just as housing is showing signs of life, congress may be taking away the mortgage interest deduction. we're going to look at that coming up here. plus, congressional cliff divers we call them. we're going to hear from a democratic lawmaker who says let's just do it. let's go off the fiscal cliff. better to do that than make unnecessary cuts. so what is he willing to cut? that's coming up. also, would you like $500 million? that's the powerball jackpot right now. even lottery winners are not going to be safe from the fiscal cliff. all details coming up later on the "closing bell." stay tuned. having you ship my gifts couldn't be easier.

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home prices rebounding.

we just learned today that prices were up 3% from a year ago in september. >> but there is a range that could be heading toward the housing market's momentum. the one sacred home mortgage deduction could be on the chopping block as part of any deal to avert going over the fiscal cliff in order to raise revenue. what happens to the housing market if that goes by the wayside or is modified? joining us is the president of team investments, and the president of u.s. investments will join us in a moment on this very important issue. tania, what do you think would happen? you deal with clients across a range of income levels. who effect would that have on home oownership in this country? >> eliminating the mortgage deduction will not increase

revenue. it will cut consumer spending. homeowners upgrade their homes. they paint. they make their yards better. they have the pride of homeownership. when you don't have that and you can't calculate in that mortgage deduction, it's going to hurt our economy overall. >> the question was, what's it going to do to the housing market? >> it's absolutely going to hurt the housing market because people won't buy. so the problem is all those things, and we're not going to be putting capital back into the economy. >> don't you think we already push homeownership in so many ways in had this country? we're unique in all the world with a 30-year mortgage. i could have $1 million in the bank, but i could mail in the keys and said, i don't want to pay anymore and they can't do anything. we push homeownership in a way that doesn't exist anywhere else in the world. you really think homeownership levels would fall? i don't believe it. >> we are becoming a renter nation. it just came out that first-time home buyers that used to make up

40% of our buyers is now down to 31%. buyers are still scared. you take away this tax deduction, and it creates more fear and less money in the economy. >> you know, it might have an impact on the margins, but let's not forget that once upon a time we could deduct the interest on credit cards. they took that away -- >> and we still spend like crazy on credit cards. >> we still use credit cards out there. >> you have to remember that a $3,000 credit card bill or a $10,000 credit card bill is very different than a $100,000 or $300,000 or $1 million home. that is not a good analogy. >> but you pay your mortgage on a monthly basis. can they afford the monthly payment? that's what it comes down to. they don't look at the total amount of the mortgage itself. can i afford that monthly payment? >> thany good agent is going to

analyze the home and tell someone whether they can afford it or not. >> and -- we're playing devil's advocate, but i think we're on to something. if you can't afford the house without the mortgage deduction, then the question is, do you have any business buying that house? >> right. so now you're creating more of a renter nation like we're becoming. let's talk about landlords for a minute. landlords, when you're analyzing a property, absolutely take mortgage deduction into their overall cap rate, everything else. >> what have the numbers done for homeownership? we've gone from what percent to what percent? >> first of all, let me make my point about landlords. those numbers are actually going to go up for renters, which is going to hurt the middle class. again, we're hurting the middle class. going to your point right now, the national association of realtors' president just came out and said that home buying process has actually taken us

out of the last five of the seven -- >> the fact is that homeownership overall peaked dramatically during the boom, went to people who probably shouldn't own homes. it's fallen back to a far more normal level. you keep saying a renter nation. you know what? sometimes you don't want to encourage buying. you know what renting is about? it's about flexibility. if you lose your job, it's much easier to go to a smaller place you can afford. >> we need to actually -- >> pushing homeownership is not necessarily a good thing. >> homeowners take fantastic care of their homes. they put money back into this economy. >> not when they have zero equity in it and don't care. >> we don't have zero down mortgages anymore, so we don't have to worry about that any longer. >> i'm done. tania, you're a good sport. thank you for joining us today.

we'll wait to see. the talk is maybe they're going to cap the mortgage deduction. maybe to $2 million. >> it's ultimately a subsidy for the rich. the more home you buy and the more home you can afford to buy, the more deduction you get. >> i would miss it, certainly. >> i think everybody would miss did, but it's another example of using the tax code to push our way into what is right and wrong. we've seen that before. renting is not a bad thing. it's a choice. >> i agree. >> i'm son a soap box today. i'm sorry. >> it's okay. we're moving on, so is the market. >> apple, let's go back to the good old stories. apple once again king of smart phone sales in the u.s. but which one wins the stock war? apple versus google up next. plus, hewlett-packard and ahn to ah n -- autonomy.

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let's get to jackie deangelis with a market flash. >> hey, michelle. taking a look at shares of merck

today. increasing its quarterly dividend with paenny hike. you can see with that news came out. the stock reversed and turned a little bit of a corner. still down about 18 cents. michelle. >> thank you so much. not too many bright spots on wall street today. bertha coombs found one at the nasdaq. bertha. >> we'll get to that in a minute. i'm going to make you wait for it. take a look at some of the big cap drags today. r.i.m. back up to the best performer so far in november. today we're seeing a pullback on some concerns that maybe the blackberry 10 may not be all it's cracked up to be. apple off of the lows, but whenever apple is lower, so is the nasdaq. monster beverages up today. the best performer in terms of big caps on the feeling that fda isn't going to have a big crackdown on energy drinks. green mountain coffee ahead of its earnings, also up today. acadia is the huge winner today.

shares more than doubling on monster volume. more than 45 million shares trading hands. the company has a drug to treat alzheimer's in late-stage trial. rather, parkinson's. they still have a ways to go before sending it to the fda. this stock was trading below $1, folks, in the fourth quarter of 2010. its biggest stake holder took a 5.25 million share stake. nice return. >> good stuff. bertha, thank you. thank you very much. there we are. shares of apple on a tear this week, jumping more than 10%. more good news, research firm says apple's iphone has now overtaken google's android software in the u.s. smart phone. does that mean you should own apple over google? it's one of our favorite topics on "talking numbers." let's do that now.

you like google over apple. is that allowed? >> i may be one of the only once out here who still liked go eds over apple. apple enjoyed a nice healthy steady uptrend from the 2009 lows. rallied up to 700. kind of stalled out, pulled back. what concerns me is where it saw this pullback. it saw a low from may around 530. traders saw that low. they use it as a stop. it bounced slightly from here, but i don't think that was a really good support zone. now if you look at dwoog l, i think google is actually standing on very strong support. we see a multiyear wedge forming. multiple times it tested that 650 area of resistance. now it's resting on that support. as they say, tall houses can be built from strong foundations.

i think google has a strong foundation. >> one of many things they say. erin, why are you sticking with apple? >> not only if you look at the chart but fundamentally. in may, they bought motorola. when they made their earnings announcement in mid-october, you can see that huge drop. apple is trading at 40% less on valuation. it's also lower than its peers versus google. so you can get similar long-term earnings growth, about 14% long-term growth versus 16% on google, but you're trading at a 40% less lower valuation. you're looking at the next 12 months earnings. it's a that brainer. not only that, but apple pays dividends. >> i think a lot of traders are ju jumping into apple here because, yes, they have tremendous amounts of cash on their balance sheets. i think what they're trying to do is own am, they want to rent apple for a potential special

dividend. if they get the special -- >> they paid one dividend. they have so much cash on the balance sheet. even if you pay one special dividend, they still have offered guidance and they're going to continue to pay dividends. we're still looking at a 2% dividend yield going forward regardless of the special payments. >> i understand, but i think a lot of traders are renting, they're not owning the stock. >> this is not a rental. in fact, actually, the stocks dropped down. this is not a rental. this is a long-term quality company who's been able to well-manage their cash floes and pay dividends for years. >> all right, folks. good conversation. enjoy it. fun listening to two intelligent people disagree on an issue like that. thanks for joining us today. michelle, we're back to the renting versus owning again. >> yes. all right, the dow is lower by 50 points while the nasdaq is positive -- no, negative by half a point. we have 34 minutes before the closing bell. next guest is a democratic congressman who's unwilling to make any cuts to social security and medicare. if more sign on to his way of

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the debate on how to fix the fiscal cliff has been almost completely focused on tax hikes. but if you're only raising taxes on the upper income, you can't even make a dent in the deficit without cutting spending at the same time. eamon javers looks at the possible cuts. >> hey, bill. i was going to tell you how they could cut spending on capitol hill, but we've had news. i'll spare you that and get to the news. markets over the past little while here this afternoon have been reacted to comments from harry reid and mitch mcconnell. let me play you a sound bite of what markets reacted to and explain on the other side why i think markets are getting this wrong this afternoon and are in

danger of getting it wrong throughout this debate. first, listen to what the two leaders had to say. >> there's been little progress with the republicans, which is a disappointment to me. they talked some happy talk about doing revenues, but we only have a couple weeks to get things done. >> as we head into the fiscal cliff negotiations, my advice to the president would be it seems like our friends on the other side are having some difficulty turning off the campaign. we need to sit down and work this matter out. >> it seems like what markets were reacting to this afternoon was harry reid saying there's been little progress. but he actually said there's been little progress with republicans. he's saying he wants the other side to concede more than they have. this is a negotiation.

it's very important to remember there's going to be back and forth day in and day out. that's what we saw on capitol hill this afternoon. the markets reacting strongly to it. but the markets other day when the leaders came out of the white house also got it wrong. they said they had a constru constructive meeting. markets rallied. that was a meaningless bit of washington jargon. that sentence didn't give us any information. harry reid's sentence here today gave us information that he wants more out of the republicans. what you're seeing is an unfolding negotiation here, not something that should raise alarm bills, not that negotiations have stopped or something has gone wrong in this process. back to you. >> all right, eamon. thank you very much. i think they should get in a room, close the door, and don't come out until you get a deal. >> we've done that before. that was erskine bowles, gang of six. that was the problem. >> it doesn't serve anybody's interest to be talking publicly,

negotiating publicly. we start getting little bits and pieces about social security coming off the table. no progress being made. all these things that are upsetting and roiling. just get behind closed doors and get the deal done. >> i think you're asking for politicians to change their human nature. >> let's talk to one and see what he thinks. our next guest says one area we could cut spending is corporate subsidies and wall street must share the burden with main street. the congressman of arizona says the spending cuts and higher taxes are key to getting a deal done before the looming deadline. >> and if we can't get a sensible deal, he says he's willing to go over the cliff rather than make a bad deal. here to make his case is the congressman. he's also co-chair of the house progressive caucus. sir, good to have you here. >> welcome. >> thank you. >> you're really willing to go over the fiscal cliff? what is it you would not do that you think is preferable to go

over the cliff on december 31st? >> i think it would be bad, not only politically, but economically, for us to turn our back on investments, for us to accept that social security will be changed, that benefits will be reduced, that medicare will be changed, benefits will be reduced, that we'll throw medicare under the bus. poor people, disabled people will get less and less attention regarding their health needs and their needs in life. i think those in the long-term are going to hurt this economy more, are going to create the kind of society that is all have and have nots and that's not what we want. >> sir, a lot of people look at medicare and see, we have billionaires and millionaires who are on cnbc all the time, and they can all use medicare and all get social security. what about means testing? >> i think that, you know, the issue of social security is a different issue. >> okay. medicare then. >> raising the cap based on

income would extend life. i don't disagree with that. with regard to medicare, that has been a guaranteed benefit based on a person's work life and based on age. at this point, absent any other criteria, of which i have seen none, i think it is messing with a program that essentially needs help and needs to be restructured. we need to look for ways to make it more efficient but to change benefits, to raise the retirement age, raise eligibility. >> so no. >> let me ask you this. you've made it clear that's a sacred air why for you. where would you give? where is the area for compromise that would get us closer to a deal on the fiscal cliff then? >> the area of compromise has always been about revenue generation, about the 2% and the tax rates at that level. we can't just talk about deductions as the way to do that. we have to look at that and look at tax code for corporations.

those areas have to be on the table. then i think people -- >> you're well aware that there are members of the republican party who have said that's a sacred area for them. they don't want to raise taxes on the wealthiest in this country. this they want to maintain the tax breaks from the bush era for everybody or nobody. here we are. you've identified where your sacred areas are. they've got theirs. that's what i'm asking. where's the middle ground in all of this? >> well, the middle ground is a fair share. by putting the benefit programs on the table, social security, medicare, medicaid, as being the source for the deficit and the only way to reduce that and the only way to balance this, i think is wrong when there is no significant revenue. not just gestures and token appeals about tax deductions and other areas but a significant

restructuring of that code to bring us back in line the way that we were under clinton. >> representative, as we're talking, the market is selling off once again. every time members of congress come on -- and i've got to tell you, sir, i think you're contributing to the fears that we're going off the fiscal cliff, because it doesn't sound like there's any compromise in what you're saying. do you care that markets are selling off dramatically when it looks like you can't come to a deal? >> of course, i do. i also care that we've asking the working families and middle class to carry the burden for two decades on this tax rates and on the revenue generation for this country. i don't think it's unfair, and it shouldn't be a scare tactic to ask corporate america and the wealthy to pitch in and help this country when this country needs the help. that's all. >> i don't understand when you say -- if you don't want to change medicare in any way, say means testing, what you mean is you want to subsidize the wealthy. the retiring generation right now is the wealthiest retiring

generation in american history. you're asking young people to subsidize wealthy people who are retiring if you don't want to make key changes to medicare. you want to help the rich, not the poor? >> no, i don't think the scenario is that way. when you look at the people on medicare, when you look at people on medicaid, those are people that not only earn the benefit -- >> i didn't say medicaid, i said medicare. it's different, right? >> i think the vast, vast majority of people on medicare are people that have earned that benefit and are entitled to that benefit. and there has been -- >> so no changes? >> no changes, because at this point without any revenue generation to offset the blunt cuts, why are we talking about changed? >> 80 points. >> sir, thank you for your time. we appreciate it very much. >> thank you very much. >> there it is. that's the fiscal cliff in a nutshell. >> i don't know. like i said, put them behind the doors, close the doors. >> they're going to say the same things. >> i suspect they would say

something different behind closed doors than they would say publicly. they have to hold to the party line publicly to let their constituents know. he didn't say it here, but he did say in the notes to our staff that he wants to represent the people of his district. he doesn't -- this is why they sent him to washington. he doesn't want to sell them out in that regard. >> i don't know what that means. >> but you get politicians behind closed doors, and they might say something different. i don't know. where are we? the market is selling off. we're going back to the loes of the session. we were down over 80 points earlier. now down 77 on the dow. >> our next guest seeing any market pullback as an attractive buying opportunity. that's ahead. that bullish call up next. i could use a little optimism. >> is it a full moon today? there's something going on. >> it might be. later, playing the lottery. it you're doing that, listen up. we have $500 million worth of advice. how you can minimize the potential taxes that could be

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markets went to the lows of the session when senator majority leader harry reid started talking about the fiscal cliff and started sounding less optimistic about it all. bob, give us more details. >> a lot of debate about these reid comments. he did say there was little progress made on the fiscal cliff, but read more about what he said. he said, i'm extremely hopeful that the fiscal cliff issues can be resolved. he said, i don't believe the republicans are going to allow us to go over the fiscal cliff. a lot of parsing of these words. the dow did drop to 81 points on the low. we're now not far from those lows. we rallied more when people got details about what happened. if you look at the home builders, they're the leadership of the day. home prices are continuing to improve, up 3.6% year over year. finally a little news from companies. very upbeat guidance from corning. that's helping a number of the

retailers today. las vegas sands and brown-forman, both announcing special dividends for the quarter. that's impacting those individual stocks. you'll see more of those special dividends and more moving up of the dividends from january into december if we continue to get talk on this fiscal cliff debate two weeks from now. guys, back to you. >> thank you, bob. thank you very much. let's talk about the market. stephen gallagher is advising investors to buy now. >> larry cantor thinks any significant correction is a buying opportunity. so why are these guests so bullish? they join us to explain. larry, why are you so bullish? >> i don't know about so bullish, but the thing is unless you believe that they're going to let not just the fiscal cliff go over, but that we have no agreement throughout 2013, that means you believe there will be some agreement. the markets may go down from now until then, but then you'll get

a bounce. really, there's three possibilities here. one is they don't reach any agreement throughout 2013. because, remember, to get the full fiscal tightening, it has to extend throughout the entire year. option two is a delay tactic where they say, okay, we don't want to topple over. we'll agree and decide on something later. i don't think marketing react much one way or the other on that. the third is you get an agreement. i think there's a good chance this goes into the new year. remember, if they agree on something january 10th, january 15th, is that going to have that huge of an effect? so that's the idea. >> got it, larry. thank you. >> so why are you telling people to buy with all the uncertainty right now? >> i'm only on the buy on the dip. maybe that got interpreted now on today's pullback. i think today's pullback is pretty modest. today was reid saying there's little progress. the next thing we have to be fearful of, which i fully anticipate, is they're going to be talking about a full breakdown of talks in washington between now and the end of the year. that's your buying opportunity.

that's when you have to shut your eyes, plug your nose, and jump in. they're not going to let it go that far. we may run over the cliff. i'd expect a deal very quick in the new year with the retroactive feature. it's messy. it's not pretty. we're not looking for good common sense and clean policy from washington. but it will be in place in a month, two months from now. >> when the fall happens, you're saying that's the opportunity. >> i think it's consumer discretionary. you just picked it up a moment ago with corning's commentary about flat panel. the housing market is what's so key about this. we got the very good news from kay-shiler today. housing starts are booming. they're going to continue to run up significantly in the next few years. this isn't just a few months. we're way behind the curve on home building. >> what if the mortgage deduction goes away? >> well, we'll see about that. that's not on the table right now. it could be, but i don't know. i'm really not expecting that any time soon. >> i think it is, yeah. larry, what are you going to buy

here? >> look at the market since the election. in fact, global stock markets are flat. u.s. stocks are down 2%. that's like nothing. so basically what's happening is this fiscal cliff is holding down a market that's being boosted by what steve said, better economic numbers, not just in the u.s. china's bottom is going up. we've seen better pmi numbers in europe. monetary expansion is pushing asset spriess up. so again, if you believe there's going to be resolve, and it could well go down. i actually think there will be bigger buying opportunities if you go through december 31st with negative rhetoric into the new year. that's when things get really nasty here. i don't learn anything from the sound bites from senator reid or boehner or anybody else. these are just negotiations going on. >> all right. >> unfortunately in public. that's my point. >> that's how it's always done. you are so hopeful, bill. >> larry, steve, i'll see you

later. >> it's charming, bill. just charming. all right. we have -- >> that's a code word on her part, by the way. >> 13 minutes before the closing bell. the dow jones industrial average lower by 70 points. >> wall street firms are turning increasingly bullish about next year. we're going to hear from somebody who says these bullish calls could be a bearish sign. a contrarian. still to come. wait until the last minute. can i still ship a gift in time for christmas? yeah, sure you can. great. where's your gift? uh... whew. [ male announcer ] break from the holiday stress. ship fedex express by december 22nd for christmas delivery.

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welcome back. this first day back for congress. >> i'm not surprised. >> they're just back from their thanksgiving holiday. already, comments coming from the two leaders in the senate have roiled the markets today. harry reid, the democratic leader, saying he's disappointed with with the progress of talks to this point on the fiscal cliff with republicans. mitch mcconnell saying he wishes the other side would stop with the campaigning already. >> and when you look at the intraday charts, exactly when

harry reid made those comments is when you see the market fall to the lows of the session. 2:30 is where you see it. bob made a point all last week. why is the market doing so well? congress is not in washington, d.c. be careful when they come back. he was absolutely right. >> nasdaq had a gain at that point. all of that's been wiped out. weaver talking small numbers here, obviously, percentage-wise. the point is, it is very clear what wall street is watching right now, the progress or lack thereof on the fiscal cliff talks. >> and the question we've been asking, which is really important, is obviously investors care very much about the fiscal cliff. when you see the consume r confidence data, the consumer either isn't aware, not fearful of the fiscal cliff, and the question is, should they be at this point? who's right at this point? is the market right to be so fearful? we just had two guests on who said, look, we may go into january, so what? it's hard to know. or are companies already discounting in how bad things are going to be and they've already contracted their

spending? >> i have to keep reminding myself what i was thinking before this period, before the election. i agree with steven gallagher. they'll get something done. they have to get something done, right? we have to remember it's going to be ugly. we'll have all the public posturing beforehand. they'll have the volatility. in the end, they have to get something done. >> who blinks? >> well, that remains to be seen, doesn't it? that's exactly why they should go behind closed doors to get this done, to allow for the blinking to be done in private. >> bill would be a very good mediator. i would not. all right. coming up next, we're coming right back with the closing countdown. please don't move. >> have you purchased your powerball ticket? the jackpot at $500 million. winners beware, the fiscal cliff could take away a bigger part of that change. we'll help you prepare, coming up on the "closing bell."

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he loves risk. but whether he's climbing everest, scuba diving the great barrier reef with sharks, or jumping into the market, he goes with people he trusts, which is why he trades with a company that doesn't nickel and dime him with hidden fees. so he can worry about other things, like what the market is doing and being ready, no matter what happens, which isn't rocket science. it's just common sense, from td ameritrade. about 3 1/2 minutes left. we're going out on the lows of the day.

here was the trading pattern for the dow. maybe selling on the greek news. they got a greek deal with the eu. then the economic data came out that was better than expected. want housing, the durable goods and all that. then congress came back to work. the two leaders of the senate had their say about the lack of progress on the fiscal cliff talks. we've been selling off ever since. we're going down about 95 points. i want to see quickly what the ten-year note did today in terms of the yield. not nearly as much volatility. maybe you've heard about these. our research team has put together two portfolios of etfs to track the progress of the fiscal cliff negotiations. this is the portfolio they've put together that would do well if we avoid the fiscal cliff. look at this. it's been selling off here today. guess what's going on up? the portfolio they put together of those investments that would do well if we go off the fiscal cliff. many of these are etfs that are ultra short. various sectors of the market

and the market as a whole. that's been going higher. if you want to know what's in these two portfolios, go to our website for the components of the fiscal cliff portfolios. they've been tracking this market perfectly. look who's here. are you as obsessed with the fiscal cliff talks as the market seems to be? >> i've got to be honest with you. we've been obsessed with it for about six months. i think what people are starting to realize, i think, is that even if you avoid the cliff, you're still going to have f fiscal drag. so we're of the view we're going to have a mild recession next year based on higher taxes and lower spending. >> over the cliff portfolio. >> i don't think we're going to go off the cliff, but we're

still going to have some tough ground, tough sledding. >> peter, you don't think -- i mean, you guys on the floor don't think we're going to see the volatility yet on the fiscal cliff negotiations. what do you make of today? >> i mean, what's the mood? we're down 85 points. that's insignificant. i think we're going to see these 50 to 80-point moves daily. any time you hear anything positive out of washington, the market is going to go up. i think we're going to have some sort of compromise, but taxes are going up next year. doesn't matter what we really think, they are going up next year. i think that's going to impact the market going forward in the first quarter. >> would you buy stocks anticipating increased dividends, special dividend plays, a lot of these early dividends being handed out right now? >> i wouldn't play that game. i think that's too much unty and too much risk involved in that particular thing. i'd stay away from that. >> we're going to talk about that in the next